The challenge of program evaluation: When increasing program participation decreases the relative well-being of participants

Two goals of food assistance programs are to improve well-being and to increase participation among those in need. Progress in meeting the first goal can be measured by the difference in well-being between participants and eligible non-participants. This gap in well-being though can be affected by progress made toward the second goal of increasing participation rates. In particular, if those with the lowest levels of well-being disproportionately enter the program, the gap can increase. To examine whether this tension between goals exists empirically, we consider the case of the Food Stamp Program and its effect on food insecurity in the United States, using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). In particular, we use variation in State policies (the change in administrative error rates and the combined value of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and food stamp benefits) to analyze whether increasing participation rates leads to increases in the difference in food insecurity rates. Controlling for other factors, we find evidence of the tension between these two program goals insofar as States with policies which encourage participation have higher differences in the food insecurity rates of participants and non-participants.     

The impact of agricultural research on productivity and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa

While it is widely recognized that agricultural research is a key driver of broad-based technological change in agriculture that benefits the poor in many different ways, little is known about its aggregate impacts on productivity growth and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using a polynomial distributed lag structure for agricultural research within a simultaneous system of equations framework, this paper first demonstrates that agricultural research contributes significantly to productivity growth in SSA. Productivity growth is again shown to raise per capita incomes, with income increases finally having significant poverty-reducing effects. With an aggregate rate of return of 55%, the payoffs to agricultural research are also impressive. Agricultural research currently reduces the number of poor by 2.3 million or 0.8% annually. While the actual impacts are not large enough to more than offset the poverty-increasing effects of population growth and environmental degradation, the potential impacts of agricultural research are far greater. Apart from low research investments, SSA faces several constraints outside the research system that hinder realization of potential research benefits. The results show that doubling research investments in SSA would reduce poverty by 9% annually. However, this would not be realized without more efficient extension, credit, and input supply systems.     

“第一书记”驻村的贫困农户增收效应研究——基于华东某扶贫重点市的实证检验

帮扶单位派驻“第一书记”驻村是我国开展农村扶贫工作的有效方式之一。基于全国扶贫开发信息系统子系统中2016年和2017年华东某扶贫重点市建档立卡贫困农户的数据,采用倾向得分匹配法和双重差分法评估“第一书记”驻村对贫困农户收入的影响,结果表明：派驻“第一书记”确实能有效提高贫困农户收入,市派“第一书记”对贫困农户增收的促进作用显著大于省派和县区派“第一书记”,帮扶主体的层级越高对贫困农户的帮扶越有效的结论不具有普遍性。应推广和完善派驻“第一书记”制度,激励“第一书记”进一步发挥作用,更好地引导、帮助贫困农户脱贫致富,并积极培育乡村可持续发展的内生动力。     

Can food-for-work encourage agricultural production?

Food-for-work (FFW) is the most widely used type of public works program in Ethiopia through which a high share of the food aid is distributed. This paper assesses the impacts of FFW in Tigray, a chronically food insecure region in Ethiopia, in terms of relieving liquidity constraints and thereby improving input use in agriculture. A Heckman selection model on the adoption and intensity of fertilizer use demonstrated that FFW positively influenced the decision to adopt fertilizer and there was no evidence of disincentive effect.     

How are we doing on poverty and hunger reduction? A new measure of country performance

The paper presents a new composite indicator – the poverty and hunger index (PHI) – to measure countries’ performance toward achieving millennium development goal No.1 (MDG1) on halving poverty and hunger by 2015. Building on the statistical structure of the human development index, the PHI combines all five official MDG1 indicators, thereby generating insights on a country’s net progress towards its own goal, as opposed to progress measured by a single yardstick. Nonparametric analysis on the PHI components provides further evidence on the nature of the relationship between poverty and hunger measures, while cross-country results show significant variance in progress between and within regions. An extension of the PHI allows for consideration of the rate of progress made by each country in its own terms; that is, based on where it needs to be to attain all 5 MDG1 targets by 2015. Countries needing priority attention are identified, as well as areas for future research and recommendations for post-2015 initiatives.     

Do poverty and poor health and nutrition increase the risk of armed conflict onset?

We analyze the effects of improving the economic, food security and health status on the risk of armed cotntectflict onset, focusing on the factors related to the millennium development goals. We employ the discrete-time hazard model that allows us to examine the time-varying effects of socioeconomic factors controlling for the reverse effect of conflict. Our results show that income poverty and poor health and nutritional status are more significantly associated with armed conflict onset than GDP per capita, annual GDP growth, and the ratio of primary commodity exports over GDP. In particular, poor health and nutritional status seems to play a key role in inducing armed conflicts in poor countries. These results indicate that, when a majority of the poor and the malnourished resides in rural areas and depends on agriculture directly or indirectly, investments in public goods for agriculture and rural areas can be effective tools to achieve the multiple goals of reduced poverty, food security and armed conflict, including riots in early 2008 triggered by high food prices. Food policy can be an effective element of efforts to maintain stability.     

REAL AND DISTRIBUTIVE EFFECTS OF PETROLEUM PRICE LIBERALIZATION: THE CASE OF INDONESIA

The effect of higher petroleum prices on the aggregate price level, real growth, and income distribution is appraised within a multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A reduction in the government subsidy raises petroleum prices and production costs throughout the economy. Consumer demand, production, and income decline as output prices increase and consumer purchasing power decreases. The model is applied to and calibrated for Indonesia. The simulated results predict a slight increase in the price level and a slight decrease in output. An important result is that urban household groups will be the most significantly affected by the subsidy reduction.     

Who benefit from government-led microfinance projects? Evidence from rural China

Drawing from a unique dataset of 2356 Chinese villages, this paper assesses the anti-poverty effect of the largest government-led microfinance project in the developing world. We find that the project can significantly increase the income level in the targeted villages. The main engine of the project lies in the expansion of access to nonfarm activities. We also highlight the importance of institutional circumstance in the effectiveness of the project. Specifically, a more democratized village with less political connection to local governments reaps more benefits from its participation.     

Poverty, food security, and nutrition in Central Asia: a case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

This paper attempts to provide insights into poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition in Central Asia in the period following independence, and presents the available evidence from household-level data in the Kyrgyz Republic. It finds that although some improvement has been made in recent years, significant levels of poverty, food insecurity, and child malnutrition still exist. The paper argues that, in the short run, efforts should be made to protect vulnerable groups by investing in information generation and building capacity to design and implement food security and nutrition policies and programs. Increasing the speed of policy reforms and investment in productivity-enhancing agricultural research and rural infrastructure are fundamental for long-tern sustainable development in Central Asia.     

Testing the orthodoxies of land degradation policy in Swaziland

This paper explores Swaziland's National Action Programme (NAP) to combat desertification; the country's main strategy for implementing the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). It considers whether this policy tackles real problems supported by micro-level scientific evidence and local experiences, or whether it further reinforces popular orthodoxies about land degradation. Data from one case study chiefdom in Swaziland are used to test two key orthodoxies identified within the country's NAP: (1) the presentation of degradation as a neo-Malthusian problem resulting from population pressure and (2) the assumption that the poor are responsible for degradation of their environment, in particular, the over-use of forest areas and the degradation of soils. It is found that diverse rural livelihoods inherently deliver patches of degradation at the micro-level but it is not necessarily population pressure or poor people that cause the degradation. Households with varying assets simultaneously degrade and conserve different parts of the land resource through pursuing different livelihood activities. The data indicate that while the NAP focuses on mythical problems grounded in the orthodoxies, policy attention is directed away from the more serious land degradation issues affecting rural livelihoods. The findings of this study provide a more nuanced understanding of the gaps between land degradation policy, local conservation practice and environmental and livelihood outcomes, and suggest that policymakers need to evaluate more critically the outdated and simplistic degradation orthodoxies on which much current policy is based. Stronger links need to be made between scientific and policymaking communities, while more credence should be given to land users’ own knowledges, perspectives, concepts and categories surrounding issues of soil conservation and degradation. It is suggested that steps need to be taken towards the development of broadly applicable benchmarks and indicators that bring together local and scientific knowledges across levels. Without this, popularised orthodoxies will continue to provide a basis for inappropriate land policy.